Previews
Conference Champions :: Part Three, The Big Twelve
By Scott Windmere
Jul 15, 2004, 10:04

This is the thirs in a six part series on the BCS Conference Schools. Yesterday, The Big Ten. Tomorrow, The Big East.

What I want to do today is to take a quick look at the BCS conferences and their composite schools and give you my take on what look to be the best “futures” out of the bunch. But before we get into a breakdown of the six conferences and the various lines on the teams, let me first acknowledge that betting futures is rarely the best choice for your gaming dollar. That noted, I present this article to you because in the absence of other college football betting options, the only thing we can truly discuss wagering on are futures.

So, with the previous admonition in mind, and realizing you are likely better off holding onto your bankroll until the season begins… here is my take on the BCS conferences and the current lines for Conference Champs.

The Big Twelve
The favorites here are obviously Texas (5/2) and Oklahoma (6/5) from the South. Whoever wins their tilt in the RRR will have the track on the conference crown. Texas isn’t a bad value if you think Mack Brown can lose the albatross of OU, as I have them favored in every other game they play. However, with OU owning the Horns in this series, I’m not sure 5/2 is enough. As to the Sooners themselves, I think they are probably the most talented team in the country. They destroyed foes last year by an average of 40 ppg and picked up nearly 270 more yards of offense as well. I think the Sooners are the hands down favorite in this conference and should win it al, but a line of 6/5 isn’t giving me nearly enough value to wager.

Throughout the rest of the conference, I like the value in Missouri at 12/1 and possibly Oklahoma State at 15/1.

The defense will be a strong point for Missouri this year with a tough front seven that returns four all-conference players. Getting K-State at home is also a boost and I think this gives them the inside track on the North crown. The offense has suffered some departures and with only four starters returning is a cause for question. But I like Smith and with the line at a very big 12/1 I don’t think you go wrong taking a look at Mizzou here.

There are a number of reasons why a bet on Oklahoma State is probably foolish. First off, they are in the talent heavy South and have conference favorites OU and UT to deal with. Add in four tough Big 12 road games and this may not be the ideal team to lay a wager on. However, they have shown the ability to topple the Stoops regime and have what will likely be the best defense they have had under Miles. They are definitely not my first choice for a bet on the crown, but if you like the line a bit high and like to ride a dog, OSU is definitely worth your consideration.

As to the rest of the conference which I have given short information. I’ll offer a few sentence synopsis.

I thnk K-State should take second in the North. I don’t like them at 5/1 though as I think too many questions remain and with so few starters returning I think the line needs to be a bit more.

Nebraska worries me with the big switch on offense. When teams make drastic playbook changes it is usually a year or more until the team plays at a very high level. With the line on the Huskers being only 8/1 I think Missouri is a much better bet at 12/1.

Texas A&M would also probably warrant some attention if they we’re not stuck in the battle of the South with Texas and OU, but I have them finishing third in that division and at 15/1 they warrant a look.

The rest of the conference doesn’t seem like anything I would want to consider for a wager. Colorado has lots of questions (including the head coach) and Texas Tech has a tougher conference schedule than I think they can handle. Iowa State was one of the worst teams in the conference last year getting outscored by nearly 35 ppg, and though I see an upswing in the team this year, they aren’t going to challenge for the crown.

© Copyright 2001 by AgainstTheLine.com